East Tennessee St. at VMI, Total: 47.5 Points
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The spring season has been a triumphant one for Virginia Military Institute. The Keydets sit at 5-0 as they welcome East Tennessee State. You won’t find the traditional triple-option attack, which many service academies employ, in Lexington City. Gone is the “keep the chain moving” philosophy in lieu of a fully formed and highly potent offense to go with a gritty, tough defense. They have been in every type of game so far this season: defensive struggles, blowouts and barnburners. They have passed every test.
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ETSU has been up to the task all season as well. Its only loss was to Furman 17-13, where its offense could never get on track. The Buccaneers have wins over Samford, The Citadel and Western Carolina. ETSU has been a steady football team, but this game against VMI will be a barometer to see if it has improved since its mid-March loss to the Paladins. This game will go a long way in deciding who will reign atop the Southern Conference.
What I see
Furman is the key to the prediction this week. Both teams played Furman, and both games were low-scoring affairs. ETSU scored 13 points and VMI managed just one more point. Both defenses held Furman in check as well, and that could be a key factor in their matchup against each other since all three teams employ similar offenses. Neither team will see anything they have not become adept at seeing. Which team will be limited through the air? That will most likely tell the story of the game.
What do the statistics say?
The Buccaneers and the Keydets both sit in the top four in the SoCon in scoring defense. ETSU is second with 18 points per game allowed, and VMI is fourth at 19.2 points. VMI is second in the conference in passing yards (306.4), and ETSU’s pass defense allows 165 yards per game.
Third- and fourth-down conversions will be key as well. VMI is one of the best teams in the conference at converting those opportunities. It converts third downs 42.5 percent of the time, and it converts fourth downs at a whopping 76.9 percent. ETSU has allowed opponents to convert third downs 38.3 percent of the time.
The best red-zone defense (78.6) in the conference belongs to VMI, and ETSU has the worst red-zone offense (73.3).
Who’s playing?
The Keydets have two quarterbacks who have played well this season. Senior Reece Udinski led the offense through the first four games. He passed for more than 1,000 yards and has thrown for seven touchdowns. He missed last weekend’s game due to a knee injury, which paved the way for redshirt freshman Seth Morgan to throw for 375 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 76 yards. Both of these quarterbacks represent the rise of Keydets football and the hope for sustained success going forward. Udinski is transferring to Maryland to finish his playing career, which means Morgan has the permanent keys to this team’s offense earlier than expected.
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Sophom*ore quarterback Donovan Manual has been all over the place for the Buccaneers this season. In addition to the linebacker’s 23 tackles, he has 2.5 sacks, two interceptions, two passes defensed, two quarterback hurries and a forced fumble. He leads a defense that boasts 11 players with double-digit tackles and 11 players with at least one sack. This defense is stingy, and players fly around and make plays everywhere on the field.
What are they playing for?
The Southern Conference title and a spot in the playoffs are on the line. With the third-place team in the conference already sporting a couple of losses and UT-Chatanooga opting out for the remainder of the spring season, the winner of this game would be in clear position to win the conference. VMI will have a bye week followed by their rivalry game with The Citadel, where they will be heavy favorites. They also have a chance for their first undefeated regular season since 1957, when they finished 9-0-1. That’s astonishing for a team that is 9-36 over the previous four seasons, which includes a 0-11 campaign three seasons ago.
If ETSU is able to get the job done against VMI, that will give them the tiebreaker advantage should both teams finish with one loss. The Buccaneers will be looking to return to the postseason for the first time since 2018, when they lost a close first-round matchup to Jacksonville State. They have been a regular middle-of-the-pack team, and this could be the impetus for a more sustained return to the upper echelon in the conference.
I believe this will be a low-scoring affair, but VMI has proven to be more offensively efficient than ETSU. I think the Keydets keep the undefeated streak going but the game goes under.
24-20 Keydets but take the under!
Eastern Washington at UC Davis -1.5 O/U 67.5
This is a matchup between the best offense in the Big Sky Conference and the best defense. EWU has been an offensive juggernaut this spring. The Eagles average 43.5 points per game, leading the conference. They also boast the top team in total offense with 578 yards per game. UC Davis is second in points per game allowed with 21.5 and is first in total defense at 318.3 yards per game. UCD will look to hold EWU’s offense in check like they were able to do against Weber State (18 points) and Idaho (17). If they are successful at that they will win the game, but if they get into a track meet with EWU they will get beat and the game will easily go over.
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The Idaho State game gives me pause on UCD. Were they looking ahead to this big matchup of the week? Did they have holes in their defense exposed by Idaho State that EWU can take advantage of? In the end, the Aggies find themselves with another chance to show they are a major factor in the Big Sky, and EWU has not been the same level of offense on the road against a quality opponent (28-21 loss at Idaho.
Give me the home team in a nailbiter and the under: UCD 34-31
Sam Houston State -24.5 at Northwestern State O/U 66.5
Northwestern State lost to Lamar by eight points and Nicholls State by seven. Sam Houston beat those same two teams by 55 and 54 points. It can be dangerous to predict a game based off common opponents. The difference in this game is SHSU does similar things as the two teams that beat Northwestern State; however, the Bearkats are more efficient and prolific than those teams. When you add in the fact that Sam Houston State has had a week off to get healthy, clean up mistakes and prepare for the Demons, it is difficult to see this game going well for the home team. Big spreads are big for a reason.
Give up the points on the road and take the over: SHSU 55-17
Davidson at San Diego -9.5
San Diego is undefeated and remains the class of the Pioneer League. The Toreros have not looked as dominant this spring despite still winning games. Davidson has been impressive this spring, and even in its only loss of the season to Elon, it let that game get away in the fourth quarter. Since that setback, the Wildcats have won three straight games. The Wildcats are a legit threat to defeat the Toreros. Even if they fall short it is hard to see them losing by 10 points.
Take the points on the road: Davidson +9.5
And here’s a new FCS podcast I’m working on!
FCS RUNDOWN with Criswell and The Coach (“Criswell” is fellow FCS enthusiast Josh Criswell)
(Photo of Eastern Washington head coach Aaron Best: Jennifer Buchanan / USA Today; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in this article.)
Gene Clemons is a contributor to The Athletic and has written for Giants Country and Football Game Plan. The Tampa (Fla.) native was a three-sport athlete (football, basketball and track) in high school and college. He now serves as a journalism and multicultural literature teacher and head high school football coach. He hosts the "X&O The Joes" series on the "Coach Gene Clemons" YouTube channel. Follow Gene on Twitter @geneclemons
